The Austin area housing market continues to move through a slow and supply-heavy cycle, and today’s numbers reveal a region still working through elevated inventory while demand remains steady but not forceful.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for December 03, 2025.
Buyers, sellers, and agents are navigating a market shaped by increased listing volume, longer timelines, and pricing strategies that must adjust to a more balanced and sometimes buyer-tilted environment. With 14,538 active listings, more than half of all listings having at least one price drop, and months of inventory rising, the market remains in a period of soft turnover. For anyone following austin real estate closely or tracking the austin housing forecast, these December figures offer a clear view of where the market stands as the year closes.
Inventory remains the driving story across the Austin area. Today’s 14,538 active listings represent a 14.6% increase from the 12,682 active listings available on this date last year. While inventory is down from the peak of 18,146 recorded on June 30, the market continues to hold more supply than buyers can absorb. The fact that 57.5% of all active listings have recorded at least one price reduction illustrates how sellers are responding to shifting conditions. New listing volume is also contributing to the supply imbalance. Year to date, the Austin area has recorded 47,870 new listings, a 5.5% year-over-year increase and 23.2% above the long-term average. The consistent flow of new inventory continues to outpace the number of homes going under contract.
Demand, while stable, is not strong enough to offset the incoming supply. Pending listings today stand at 3,790, only a 0.2% decline from the 3,799 pending listings seen at the same time last year. This stability shows that buyers are active, but they are not absorbing inventory quickly enough to tighten the market. Cumulative pending contracts from January through November total 41,087. This is down 0.9% year over year but remains 7.4% above the long-term average. Buyers are not disappearing. Instead, the challenge lies in the fact that demand has not risen in proportion to the growing supply.
The Activity Index offers one of the clearest signals of the market’s current slowdown. Today’s Activity Index sits at 20.7%, down from 23.1% at this time in 2024, reflecting a 10.3% decline in overall market velocity. On the resale side specifically, the market is concentrated in the softening and contraction phases. A majority of resale segments fall within the 15% to 20% range, categorized as danger zone conditions where sales slow and price pressure increases. Another sizable portion sits below 15%, signaling freeze conditions where buyers proceed carefully, and price corrections become more common. For anyone monitoring the austin market update for real-time demand indicators, the Activity Index continues to show that momentum has not yet turned.
The new listing to pending ratio reinforces the broad supply-heavy trend. The monthly ratio sits at 0.90, which means the market is adding 90 new listings for every 100 pending contracts. Historically, the 25-year average is 0.82. Year to date, the ratio is 0.73. The gap between cumulative new listings and cumulative pending contracts for the year totals 6,783 homes, a clear signal that listings are accumulating faster than they are being absorbed. This widening gap is one of the strongest indicators of why sellers are making more price adjustments and why buyers are entering negotiations with increased leverage.
Months of Inventory has also risen meaningfully. The Austin area now reflects 5.17 months of inventory, up from 4.47 months a year ago, a 15.6% increase. Within the resale market, a large share of inventory sits in categories aligned with buyer advantage. Homes between 210 and 267 days on market fall within the buyer leverage range, while homes above 270 days fall into the buyer control range. Combined, these categories represent a significant share of the market and confirm that buyers hold more negotiating power. As days on market extend, pricing pressure naturally increases, and sellers must be more strategic to stand out in a crowded environment.
Sales activity continues to highlight slower absorption across the Austin region. The most recent period reflects 1,938 sold properties. When adjusted for population, cumulative sold per 100,000 residents from January through November totals 1,080, down 6.4% year over year and 21.2% below the long-term average. When normalized per 1,000 Realtors, cumulative sold volume is 1,494, which is nearly flat year over year but remains 23.7% below average. Realtor competition remains high, and fewer closings per agent means every listing and every buyer opportunity counts more than in previous years.
Price trends continue to show the long tail of the market correction that began after the May 2022 peak. The average sold price for November is $566,993. This is down 16.86% from the May 2022 peak of $681,939, a decline of about $115,000. The median sold price now stands at $428,147, down 22.16% from the May 2022 peak of $550,000, a difference of $122,000. Median price performance relative to 36 months prior reflects a decline of 6.92%, reinforcing that today’s pricing remains below both recent peaks and long-term trend lines.
Long-term appreciation modeling provides a realistic timeline for recovery. Based on Austin’s 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.772%, it would take approximately 68 months for today’s median price of $428,147 to return to a projected peak value of $550,334. This implies a potential recovery around June 2031, assuming consistent long-term appreciation without major economic disruption. This time horizon is essential for homeowners, investors, and analysts who are evaluating Austin’s multi-year price trajectory.
Price movement varies significantly across the region. The bottom 25th percentile has seen a 1.03% price decline year over year, along with a 3.16% decline in price per square foot. The top 25th percentile has seen a 1.64% increase in price and a 0.89% increase in price per square foot. These numbers reveal that the higher-priced segments are holding value more effectively, while the lower-priced segments remain under more pressure. For the City of Austin specifically, higher-end neighborhoods continue to show stronger resilience while more affordable segments continue to reflect year-over-year declines.
The absorption rate stands at 14.80%. The long-term historical average is 31.64%. This gap illustrates how slowly the current market is converting active listings into closed sales. When the absorption rate sits this far below the long-term average, it confirms that market turnover remains sluggish and that the rebalancing process is far from complete.
The Market Flow Score is one of the most comprehensive measures of turnover health. Today’s score is 4.98, below the historical average of 6.58. The Market Flow Score blends multiple indicators such as the active-to-sold ratio, Demand Supply Velocity, Market Absorption Efficiency Ratio, and Market Turnover Efficiency Score. A score in the 4 range confirms slower turnover, limited momentum, and ongoing buyer leverage. For anyone studying the austin real estate forecast for 2026, the Market Flow Score highlights that the market is not entering a phase of rapid tightening anytime soon.
Taken together, today’s Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing shows a market still defined by elevated inventory, soft but consistent demand, extended days on market, and prices that remain well below peak values. Buyers continue to benefit from wide selection and negotiation room. Sellers must position their homes competitively and strategically. Agents must rely on clear data driven guidance to set expectations properly and help clients navigate a market that moves more slowly than what Austin residents experienced over the last decade.
